If you've been reading this site you know that a few years ago I failed to get a job after giving a presentation, prepared in 45 minutes, on the subject of 'The Next Big Thing in Financial Services'. Looking back, it turned out I was more-or-less bang-on. So now let's take the question again.
Firstly - let's examine the question:
- the next big thing. Well, the "Credit Cruch of '08" seems pretty big to me, seeing as how we're still suffering the knock-on effects in the general economy, even if investment banking has seemingly recovered. I still expect a bounce as the consequences in the real economy rebound and douse the current 'green shoots'. So am I to predict something of such magnitude? I think so. Why not? Look at where the enormous imbalances are, the skewed incentives, the industries struggling to defend a business model that is eroding fast - especially where those models are defended only by legalities. So, yes, big things.
The next one, though. That's kind of a problem. The future is always further away than you think. And then a critical mass builds until the tipping point when the conventional wisdom is overturned. Suddenly we chuckle gently about how foolish we once were, and how enlightened we are now. In order to identify the next one, though, I would need to order the big things and this can't be done: there are too many details and too many variables.
- in Financial Services. I'll not limit myself to financial services this time. Then, I was in an interview. Now, I'm writing about what I care about, which takes in more than just the industry in which I work.
Secondly - what do I think is the next big thing in... whatever?
Next time.
